How Nevada’s Projected Growth Ranks Against Other States
The U.S. population is projected to grow by about 1.43 million people each year through 2040, reaching roughly 363.3 million. More than half of that growth will come from just two states: Texas and Florida.
Texas leads with a projected gain of 6.56 million people (20.7%), followed by Florida at 4.62 million (19.7%) and North Carolina at 1.48 million (13.2%). Fourteen states are expected to lose population, with Illinois declining the most (about 650,000) and New York next (roughly 457,000).
Nevada ranks 13th nationally, with a projected increase of about 483,000 people, or 14.7%, between 2025 and 2040. That places it among the stronger growers in the West, though well behind the leading Sun Belt states of Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
For Nevada, this growth carries significant consequences. A larger population will intensify pressure on housing, water, roads, schools, and public services in a state already grappling with affordability and infrastructure challenges. Lawmakers will continue to confront hard choices: how to manage rapid expansion while protecting the no-income-tax model, balancing development against limited water resources, and meeting the needs of both major urban centers (Las Vegas and Reno) and rural communities.
